Mechanical indicators on daily bars — momentum and positioning, not a forecast. The overall read below tallies them into one bearish–bullish view; the per-instrument detail and the methodology behind our NALCO call are underneath it. Runs on MCX Aluminium (India), Shanghai (SHFE) aluminium, and the NALCO / Hindalco shares. Refreshes hourly.
The charts lean down, though the bigger trend hasn’t turned.
3 of the 4 instruments lean down. MCX Aluminium is slipping, though its 50- and 200-day averages are still crossed; getting close to oversold — 2 of 7 readings positive. SHFE Aluminium is going flat, though its 50- and 200-day averages are still crossed — 4 of 10 readings positive. NALCO is slipping, and it’s below its 50- and 200-day averages; getting close to oversold — 2 of 10 readings positive. Hindalco is slipping, though its 50- and 200-day averages are still crossed; getting close to oversold — 2 of 10 readings positive.
| Price vs SMA 20 | 347.76 | sell |
| Price vs SMA 50 | 347.06 | sell |
| EMA 12 vs EMA 26 | 344.01 / 346.06 | sell |
| RSI (14) | 33 | neutral |
| MACD (12/26/9) | -2.05 vs -0.40 | sell |
| Stochastic %K (14,3,3) | 5 | buy |
| Bollinger (20, 2σ) | 338 – 358 | buy |
| Price vs SMA 20 | 24227.00 | sell |
| Price vs SMA 50 | 23947.20 | sell |
| Price vs SMA 200 | 23928.80 | sell |
| SMA 50 vs SMA 200 | 23947.20 / 23928.80 | buy |
| EMA 12 vs EMA 26 | 24107.05 / 24093.97 | buy |
| RSI (14) | 41 | neutral |
| MACD (12/26/9) | 13.09 vs 77.26 | sell |
| Stochastic %K (14,3,3) | 3 | buy |
| Bollinger (20, 2σ) | 23860 – 24594 | buy |
| Volume vs 20-day average | 115% | neutral |
| Price vs SMA 20 | 357.68 | sell |
| Price vs SMA 50 | 369.88 | sell |
| Price vs SMA 200 | 373.14 | sell |
| SMA 50 vs SMA 200 | 369.88 / 373.14 | sell |
| EMA 12 vs EMA 26 | 351.16 / 359.51 | sell |
| RSI (14) | 33 | neutral |
| MACD (12/26/9) | -8.35 vs -6.46 | sell |
| Stochastic %K (14,3,3) | 16 | buy |
| Bollinger (20, 2σ) | 336 – 379 | buy |
| Volume vs 20-day average | 99% | neutral |
weak, be cautious
| Price vs SMA 20 | 982.00 | sell |
| Price vs SMA 50 | 1004.77 | sell |
| Price vs SMA 200 | 982.40 | sell |
| SMA 50 vs SMA 200 | 1004.77 / 982.40 | buy |
| EMA 12 vs EMA 26 | 968.00 / 984.30 | sell |
| RSI (14) | 35 | neutral |
| MACD (12/26/9) | -16.31 vs -12.15 | sell |
| Stochastic %K (14,3,3) | 23 | neutral |
| Bollinger (20, 2σ) | 935 – 1029 | neutral |
| Volume vs 20-day average | 163% | buy |
| Price vs SMA 20 / 50 / 200 | price above · price below · right on it |
| SMA 50 vs SMA 200 | trend up · trend down |
| EMA 12 vs EMA 26 | momentum up · momentum down |
| RSI (14) | overbought · oversold · middle ground |
| MACD (12/26/9) | momentum up · momentum down |
| Stochastic %K (14,3,3) | overbought · oversold · middle ground |
| Bollinger (20, 2σ) | in range · stretched high · stretched low |
| Volume vs 20-day average | confirms the day’s move (rising/falling on strong volume) · unconfirmed on light volume |
| ADX (used in the Pullback read) | trend has real strength (20+) · trend is weak/choppy (below 20) |
NALCO changes its aluminium price in jumps, every few weeks. Our “NALCO’s next price” read tries to call which way the next jump goes.
NALCO copies the world aluminium price, so anything that moves faster than NALCO can act as an early warning. We tested a few of them against years of past NALCO price changes, counting how often each one pointed the right way:
| Shanghai aluminium market | about 79 in 100 |
| India’s MCX aluminium market | about 78 in 100 |
| Hindalco share price | about 73 in 100 |
| NALCO’s own share price | about 66 in 100 |
| — for comparison, just guessing “up” every time | about 55 in 100 |
Two signals beat one. Shanghai and the Hindalco share do not always move for the same reason, so when they both point the same way the guess is stronger — right about 84 in 100 (89 if Shanghai has clearly moved as well). When they disagree it falls to about 60 in 100, and the price change that follows is usually small.
Why the two metal markets win. They are the price NALCO is copying. Shanghai trades in Chinese money and MCX trades in rupees like NALCO’s own price — both land on the same answer. Rough guide: the metal up about 1% has gone with NALCO up about ₹2 per kg.
Why the shares are weaker. A share price also moves on company news and the mood of the whole stock market, not just aluminium. Hindalco follows NALCO’s price better than NALCO’s own stock does, because Hindalco is more purely an aluminium company.
What about the rupee? NALCO’s price is really the world price multiplied by the dollar/rupee rate, so a weaker rupee should push it up on its own. But between one NALCO change and the next the rupee barely moves — a fraction of a percent — while the metal can swing several percent. On its own it matched the next change only about 52 in 100 (a coin toss). The rupee matters for the price level over years, not for which way the next jump goes.
Which way round is it? The market moves first. In the week before a NALCO price hike, the aluminium shares are already up about 2%; by the time NALCO actually announces, there is nothing new left to catch. So the market leads NALCO, not the other way round.
Why it can go quiet even in a clear trend. We measure Shanghai’s move since NALCO’s last change, so when NALCO revises often, that gap can be just a few days — too short for Shanghai to cross the 1% bar even while a real multi-week trend is still running. Widening the window to compensate made the call less accurate overall, so we left it alone; instead, when this happens, the read adds a line naming the wider move for context.
What it can’t do. It says which way and roughly how big — not when. Around 80 in 100 is about the best any market can do here; the final call is NALCO management’s. And the indicators above are a separate thing — they only describe today’s chart, they do not feed this call.